Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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Once bond yields started moving higher again, investors reflected on the interest rate environment and decided to take profits off the recent highs.
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This market is just extremely resilient, and if we don't get a major spike up in energy prices or interest rates from current levels, the strong earnings environment we find ourselves in could help carry the markets higher for several more weeks.
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That's likely to remain the case until we start to resolve a few of the issues overhanging the markets include interest rates, energy prices and the strength of the economy over the next several months.
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I think the last few weeks have probably been frustrating for investors. Earnings have been very positive, but the focus has been on interest rates. Over the next few sessions, it looks like the fear of higher interest rates will probably outweigh the earnings.
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
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Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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We're likely to see a correction this year after the run we've had, as well. But the outlook for third and fourth quarter earnings has been good, and if the economic data continue to improve, we could see a slightly more narrow decline that what people have been expecting.