Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
confidence consumer decline earnings market performance reports result weak
Today's weak market performance is the result of some worse-than-expected earnings reports and a decline in the consumer confidence report.
earnings exceeded fourth generally met number previous quarter quarters reports seen solid strength
Earnings for the fourth quarter have generally met or exceeded expectations. We've seen solid reports from a number of different industries, with strength not just in energy, as in previous quarters in 2005.
companies given hard industrial past reports seen several strong technology
Given the strong reports we've seen from many technology and industrial companies over the past several days, it's hard to make too much sense of today's GDP report.
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We're seeing a continuation of the trends that were generally in place through much of the first quarter. We continue to see a number of uncertainties below the surface, but investors have mostly focused on the positives.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
ahead followed half looking moderately optimistic performance second stronger weakness year
Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.
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Markets are in a trading range right now, consolidating gains after the last few months. A lot of investors were looking to this week's data as a way to break out of the range, but what we've seen has left enough doubt in the minds of the bulls that we aren't likely to break out of this range in the next few sessions.
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I think the results from AMD and Apple after the close should help boost sentiment toward technology stocks, which have been on a bit of a roll for a few weeks,
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When the central bank came out and said they're going to drain liquidity over a period of months, that was a catalyst for investors who have avoided the stock market to put some money back in.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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We're likely to see a correction this year after the run we've had, as well. But the outlook for third and fourth quarter earnings has been good, and if the economic data continue to improve, we could see a slightly more narrow decline that what people have been expecting.
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With the fed continuing to raise rates and energy prices at very high levels, its hard to see the markets making much headway, ... certainly been guy shy about putting new money to work.