Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
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Despite the Democratic National Convention, the biggest story of the week has been energy prices. That's prevented the market from seeing a bigger rally off these oversold conditions.
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The rally the past few days shows investors are willing to look past this period of uncertainty toward a pickup in growth in early 2006. It's a pretty optimistic viewpoint and that could change when the data comes in.
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We're really seeing almost a stealth rally today. Some of the most beaten-down groups of the last few days -- like airlines and retailers -- are seeing gains. But it's not just them. Five out of 10 S&P 500 groups are up at least 1 percent.
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Today, the markets once again pushed to new highs for the indices but the rally appears to have stalled. The likely culprit is that higher bond yields may finally be weighing on the minds of investors.
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Everyone expects the Fed to raise (a quarter point) and everyone wants to see if there is a change in the outlook that gives hints about future meetings.
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The bond market finally caught up with the stock market.
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Stock prices moved lower for most of the day, but closed off their lows after oil prices retreated. All in all, there was a lot of hesitation before the earnings by the two tech bellwethers.
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Once bond yields started moving higher again, investors reflected on the interest rate environment and decided to take profits off the recent highs.
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A further rise in oil prices and a retreat in Treasury yields could also create more headwinds for the market,
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The fall has traditionally caused anxiety for investors and produced some big declines, particularly in late August and early September.
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When all was said and done, the market showed its resilience once again, ... The market performed well despite today's extremely weak consumer sentiment number. Investors seem to be looking over a softer economy for the next few months towards a stronger economy to start 2006.
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The optimist would say we're in the early stage of a broad rally, the pessimist would say this is a dead-cat bounce and markets are going to head lower as oil heads toward $50 a barrel.
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Earnings for the fourth quarter have generally met or exceeded expectations. We've seen solid reports from a number of different industries, with strength not just in energy, as in previous quarters in 2005.
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February has historically been a lackluster month for the stock market. Despite many positive corporate earnings reports, investors should be prepared for some choppy or sideways trading over the near term.