Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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Productivity growth is slowing and it is not strong enough to forestall rising labor costs and broader inflation.
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It looks like the mid-Atlantic weathered the hurricane well. Activity rebounded smartly. It does reinforce the view that the underlying economy remains strong in the mid-Atlantic and more broadly across the country.
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I think the Fed will get rid of the reference about what to do in the future. I think they will make the statement as plain vanilla as possible, and they won't try to send a strong signal one way or the other.
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The largest source that drove the very strong growth over the last year was this powerful replacement cycle, which is fading, ... The need to replace inventory is over.
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Housing, the strongest part of the economy, is still booming, and manufacturing, the weakest part, should gain strength in coming months. Put it all together and it paints a pretty economic picture of solid growth and low inflation.
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If Greenspan had been stronger in his views, then the bubble would not have been as large and the subsequent correction not as severe.
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The FHA's success provides strong evidence that government can and should play a role in the nation's mortgage finance system. It also demonstrates that although government intervention in the economy during the Great Recession was messy, things would have been a lot messier without it.
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The economy is strong and, if history is a guide, it should suggest inflationary pressures should develop, but they haven't.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.
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The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.