Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
broader costs growth labor rising slowing strong
Productivity growth is slowing and it is not strong enough to forestall rising labor costs and broader inflation.
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Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
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The rate of technical change, which is the most difficult thing to measure, seems to be slowing from the unprecedented pace of a few years ago.
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A lot of things have to come together to make my forecast of a slowing current account deficit come true.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth. As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by.
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Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth, ... As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.