Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
balanced both claim clearly debate sides sure time winner
It was much more balanced than the first debate which Berlusconi clearly lost. This time I think there was no clear winner and I'm sure both sides will claim victory.
continue keen process rapid start
They were very keen to start the process early, ... But once they start, they may not continue at a rapid rate.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
additional backing early economy euro might provide recovering small support therefore zone
This could provide a small additional backing to the idea that the euro zone economy is recovering and therefore might support an early hike,
affected banking change italian past plenty resistance resulted system
As always, protectionism doesn't work. The past resistance to change has resulted in the Italian banking system being still affected by fragmentation, with plenty of small-scale players.
christmas committee context cushion decline economy evidence monetary policy sales wage waiting
The monetary policy committee is still waiting for evidence on Christmas (retail) sales and wage negotiations. Then it will cushion the decline in the economy in a context of CPI (inflation) moderation.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.