Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
chances changed debate victory
The debate may not have changed significantly the chances of victory of the two coalitions.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
confident consumer economic interest move needs order rates
In order to move interest rates higher, the ECB needs to be confident about the sustainability of the economic upswing, especially on the consumer side.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
affected banking change italian past plenty resistance resulted system
As always, protectionism doesn't work. The past resistance to change has resulted in the Italian banking system being still affected by fragmentation, with plenty of small-scale players.
continue keen process rapid start
They were very keen to start the process early, ... But once they start, they may not continue at a rapid rate.
christmas data february gift growing inflated january likely normal purchases return subdued tendency towards turned
As January data are inflated by a growing tendency towards gift vouchers over Christmas, which are then turned into purchases afterwards, a return to normal in February is likely to show up in more subdued sales.
hike march means rate stellar strong
It's a stellar performance, a very strong reading. It means a March rate hike is a done deal.
appears clear currency cut driving euro flows moment money optimal
It's not that clear cut that intervention will have an impact, ... What appears to be driving down the euro are money flows out of the euro zone. If this is the case, it is not the optimal moment for currency intervention.
allowed china currency pressure surprise
It's no surprise that the pressure is back on. At the end of the day, China allowed their currency to appreciate, but because they did so only marginally, there is disappointment elsewhere.
hike march rate
A March rate hike is a done deal.