Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
appears clear currency cut driving euro flows moment money optimal
It's not that clear cut that intervention will have an impact, ... What appears to be driving down the euro are money flows out of the euro zone. If this is the case, it is not the optimal moment for currency intervention.
allowed china currency pressure surprise
It's no surprise that the pressure is back on. At the end of the day, China allowed their currency to appreciate, but because they did so only marginally, there is disappointment elsewhere.
balanced both claim clearly debate sides sure time winner
It was much more balanced than the first debate which Berlusconi clearly lost. This time I think there was no clear winner and I'm sure both sides will claim victory.
hike march means rate stellar strong
It's a stellar performance, a very strong reading. It means a March rate hike is a done deal.
continue keen process rapid start
They were very keen to start the process early, ... But once they start, they may not continue at a rapid rate.
bold clearly might policy risk until wait
There is clearly a risk now that they might be bold enough to tighten policy in December, We think they will wait until March.
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
chances changed debate victory
The debate may not have changed significantly the chances of victory of the two coalitions.
hike march rate
A March rate hike is a done deal.
christmas data february gift growing inflated january likely normal purchases return subdued tendency towards turned
As January data are inflated by a growing tendency towards gift vouchers over Christmas, which are then turned into purchases afterwards, a return to normal in February is likely to show up in more subdued sales.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
affected banking change italian past plenty resistance resulted system
As always, protectionism doesn't work. The past resistance to change has resulted in the Italian banking system being still affected by fragmentation, with plenty of small-scale players.
additional backing early economy euro might provide recovering small support therefore zone
This could provide a small additional backing to the idea that the euro zone economy is recovering and therefore might support an early hike,
christmas committee context cushion decline economy evidence monetary policy sales wage waiting
The monetary policy committee is still waiting for evidence on Christmas (retail) sales and wage negotiations. Then it will cushion the decline in the economy in a context of CPI (inflation) moderation.