Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,
hike march means rate stellar strong
It's a stellar performance, a very strong reading. It means a March rate hike is a done deal.
hike march rate
A March rate hike is a done deal.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
confident consumer economic interest move needs order rates
In order to move interest rates higher, the ECB needs to be confident about the sustainability of the economic upswing, especially on the consumer side.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.