Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
christmas data february gift growing inflated january likely normal purchases return subdued tendency towards turned
As January data are inflated by a growing tendency towards gift vouchers over Christmas, which are then turned into purchases afterwards, a return to normal in February is likely to show up in more subdued sales.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
likely trend underlying
The underlying trend is encouraging and will likely continue.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
change global growth modest prospects shock
It would take a big global shock to change the prospects for at least modest growth in Europe.
global major remains threat
Protectionism remains the major threat to global growth.
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
era gone good people regret
That whole era is gone for good and not many people will regret its passing.
belts bill consumers economy energy increased risk
With the energy bill having increased recently, the risk is that consumers will tighten their belts over Christmas. The euro-zone economy is still at risk of a disappointing Christmas.
job makers order policy properly support
Policy makers are not doing their job properly in order to support the euro.
gap hard mind soft
Mind the Gap between Soft and Hard Data.