Lorenzo Codogno
Lorenzo Codogno
believe coming data disposable euro evidence expected gradually hard household improvement likely line modestly private proceed recovery shift soft zone
We believe that the long-awaited shift from soft to hard data is evidence of a recovery in euro zone private consumption has started, and will likely proceed gradually and modestly over the coming months, in line with the expected improvement in household real disposable income.
course despite domestic ease further headline inflation likely oil performance price rate remains
Despite oil price tensions and strengthening domestic demand, the inflation performance remains subdued. Barring another oil spike, the headline rate is likely to ease further during the course of the year.
consumer cut drove increase less likely rate services spending
Services and probably consumer spending drove the increase in GDP. It makes a rate cut less likely for the moment.
christmas data february gift growing inflated january likely normal purchases return subdued tendency towards turned
As January data are inflated by a growing tendency towards gift vouchers over Christmas, which are then turned into purchases afterwards, a return to normal in February is likely to show up in more subdued sales.
likely trend underlying
The underlying trend is encouraging and will likely continue.
coming countries domestic number pressures uneasy
There are a number of countries that are increasingly uneasy about competitive pressures coming from Asia, and the softening of domestic industry.
available certainly change financial globally horizon japan purchase reduced
With a long-term horizon it will certainly change the situation, not only in Japan but globally ... because reduced liquidity is available for purchase of financial assets.
change economic interest rates seem short suggest
We don't see any change this year. Economic indicators seem to suggest there will be no change in interest rates in the short term.
both demand due largely market oil prices rate recognize remains risk supply vulnerable
We don't see another rate rise, but we recognize that the risk is still there, due largely to oil prices -- the oil market remains vulnerable for both supply and demand reasons,
european fair few germany past problems standards tried
To be fair with Schroeder, he tried and by European standards he did do more than other governments in the past few years. But the problems in Germany are more entrenched now.
change governing perceived shift
At the margin, the change may be perceived as a small, dovish shift for the ECB governing council.
delicate government position pressure reluctant turning
The government was very reluctant to take a position because it's a very delicate situation, but now they are really turning the pressure on.
february high hike looks march remains
The probability of a February hike looks very small, but that of a tightening in March remains high in our view.
gap hard mind soft
Mind the Gap between Soft and Hard Data.