Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
adjusted based claims growth hurricane job jump point stronger weekly
We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.
ahead cannot clearly higher minds rates rule rushing
With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.
home pessimism reasonably reasons
There are reasonably deep-seated reasons for pessimism on the part of home builders.
expect focused language people rest surprise took update word
Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
core drift expect good inflation obviously slow
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
disruption due energy markets orders prices remains seen solid trend ultimately volatile whether
While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.
consumers gallon gasoline places survey wonder
Well, with gasoline well over $3.00 a gallon in most places when this survey was conducted, it is little wonder that consumers were cranky,
blunt deficit effect export fully growth help likely months ought remain solid trade
Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.
adjustment builders process pumped
Builders were able to build and so they were out there doing it, and the seasonal adjustment process pumped it up.
economy energy good health saying underlying
Basically, what they are saying is the underlying health of the economy was very good pre-hurricane and pre-spike in energy prices. And it is still pretty good after those things.
expecting hard hike minutes next people pointed pounding reaction saw table worst
People were expecting the worst and I think the reaction you saw is that it wasn't as Draconian as many had feared. There wasn't any real hard table pounding or anything in the minutes that pointed to a 50-basic point hike at the next meeting.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.