John Ryding
John Ryding
appears decline growth june labor maintained market payroll pressure putting rate reduced since solid trend wage
The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.
continues economists economy face fed force further increases labor market markets modest remains reminder running serve strong tight wage
The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.
bond buy good mania market month move upwards
The bond market had a pretty good move upwards yesterday, but I don't think we're going to get back to that kind of mania to buy Treasuries that we had in the month of September.
again bond borrowing compensate continue costs credit cut fed flows hopefully house lack market means november people problems rates remember suspect
This means people will be able to go out and refinance their house where they may not have been able to do before and I think that we have to remember this isn't over. I suspect the Fed will cut rates again in November and that will continue to keep a lid on borrowing costs and hopefully will compensate for some of the lack of credit flows to corporations that problems in the bond market have caused.
fed influence issue level market stock
The level of the stock market is always an issue for the Fed but I don't think it's such an issue that it's going to influence Fed policy.
core energy inflation overall prices pushing remains risk
With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.
easily energy increase largely report size
This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.
changes commerce department except figure game heat normal prolonged remember since summer typical weather
You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.
fed funds increasing meeting middle rate rising risk
We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.
doubt economic forced four growth interest job last month per rates
If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.
accumulate bond doubt hand heading inflation low mind patient positions willing
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.
beyond inflation looking moved people
I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
december gives greenspan likely meeting november
I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
believe economic favorable growth inflation learn low stay strong until
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.