John Ryding
John Ryding
changes commerce department except figure game heat normal prolonged remember since summer typical weather
You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.
core energy inflation overall prices pushing remains risk
With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.
easily energy increase largely report size
This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.
fed funds increasing meeting middle rate rising risk
We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.
doubt economic forced four growth interest job last month per rates
If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.
accumulate bond doubt hand heading inflation low mind patient positions willing
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.
beyond inflation looking moved people
I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
december gives greenspan likely meeting november
I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
believe economic favorable growth inflation learn low stay strong until
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
concerns continues fed maintain production risk sector slack upside
From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
clear consumer losers obviously stronger winners
There are obviously going to be losers and there are going to be winners from the stronger dollar. The U.S. consumer is the clear winner.
details due durable entirely goods january orders report stronger underlying volatility
The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.