John Ryding
John Ryding
albeit contained core federal inflation informal range remains reserve target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.
allow doubt economics fed political politics pressure september
There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th. The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
average concerned economic fed further greenspan increase likely rather report signs weakness worrying
With the Fed maintaining an economic-weakness bias, Greenspan is more likely to be concerned with the signs of further economic weakness in this report rather than worrying about the increase in average hourly earnings.
concerns continues fed maintain production risk sector slack upside
From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
fed funds increasing meeting middle rate rising risk
We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.
april bond fed few japanese march ourselves people period relates technical toward weakness
We are going through a period of weakness in March and toward the end of February. And that relates to things like Japanese (fiscal) year-end and a few other technical factors. I think getting on the March 30 FMOC meeting, the Fed (will do) nothing that reassures people . . . and I think we set ourselves up for an April bond rally.
again bond borrowing compensate continue costs credit cut fed flows hopefully house lack market means november people problems rates remember suspect
This means people will be able to go out and refinance their house where they may not have been able to do before and I think that we have to remember this isn't over. I suspect the Fed will cut rates again in November and that will continue to keep a lid on borrowing costs and hopefully will compensate for some of the lack of credit flows to corporations that problems in the bond market have caused.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
continues economists economy face fed force further increases labor market markets modest remains reminder running serve strong tight wage
The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.
bit communication fed management
The management of communication here and the way things were said has, I think, undermined a little bit of Fed credibility for now.
fed influence issue level market stock
The level of the stock market is always an issue for the Fed but I don't think it's such an issue that it's going to influence Fed policy.
appears decline growth june labor maintained market payroll pressure putting rate reduced since solid trend wage
The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.
energy perception prices
Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.