John Ryding
John Ryding
accumulate bond doubt hand heading inflation low mind patient positions willing
There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.
believe economic favorable growth inflation learn low stay strong until
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
above although auto below business consumer edge expect fourth higher hurricane inventory lower percent recovery result slow spending
Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
claims consistent creation job level low remained solid
The level of claims remained low and consistent with solid job creation.
believed claims despite due fewer january level low normal partly remained resulted return typical warm weather
The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.
details due durable entirely goods january orders report stronger underlying volatility
The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.
concerned consumer core elevated energy high inflation overall potential prices remain
Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
beyond inflation looking moved people
I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
december gives greenspan likely meeting november
I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
average concerned economic fed further greenspan increase likely rather report signs weakness worrying
With the Fed maintaining an economic-weakness bias, Greenspan is more likely to be concerned with the signs of further economic weakness in this report rather than worrying about the increase in average hourly earnings.
bond buy good mania market month move upwards
The bond market had a pretty good move upwards yesterday, but I don't think we're going to get back to that kind of mania to buy Treasuries that we had in the month of September.