John Ryding
John Ryding
believe economic favorable growth inflation learn low stay strong until
I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
absent cut data economic fed hold jobs rates sit three unless weak
I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
clear consumer losers obviously stronger winners
There are obviously going to be losers and there are going to be winners from the stronger dollar. The U.S. consumer is the clear winner.
concerned consumer core elevated energy high inflation overall potential prices remain
Overall consumer inflation is still elevated and we remain concerned about the potential for pass-through of high energy prices into core inflation.
continues economists economy face fed force further increases labor market markets modest remains reminder running serve strong tight wage
The labor force surge should serve as a reminder that the economy is further from running out of labor than the economists at the Fed think. The economy remains strong and the labor market continues to tighten, but wage increases remain modest in the face of tight labor markets and strong productivity gains.
action case consequences cost course cutting greater rates taking wrong
The consequences of taking the wrong course of action - in this case not cutting rates - are potentially greater than the cost of cutting rates.
details growth last orders paint picture rate report robust stronger three underlying
The underlying details of this report paint a stronger picture of the manufacturing sector, as evidenced by the robust growth rate of orders excluding transportation over the last three months.
coming corporate example large normally quiet rush supply time
And also there's a large rush of supply of corporate bonds, for example, coming to market. So we're getting a lot of supply this time of year, where normally it would be more quiet time for issuers.
bit communication fed management
The management of communication here and the way things were said has, I think, undermined a little bit of Fed credibility for now.
fed influence issue level market stock
The level of the stock market is always an issue for the Fed but I don't think it's such an issue that it's going to influence Fed policy.
claims consistent creation job level low remained solid
The level of claims remained low and consistent with solid job creation.
believed claims despite due fewer january level low normal partly remained resulted return typical warm weather
The low level of jobless claims in January was believed to be partly due to unseasonably warm weather that would have resulted in fewer than normal seasonal layoffs. However, despite a return to more seasonally typical weather in February, unemployment claims have remained low.