John Ryding
John Ryding
changes commerce department except figure game heat normal prolonged remember since summer typical weather
You have to remember it's only exceptional and prolonged heat that changes trends, since the Commerce Department seasonally adjusts out all typical heat. The game is to try to figure out if the weather is seasonally abnormal. Except for this week, we've had a pretty normal summer in the Northeast.
appears decline growth june labor maintained market payroll pressure putting rate reduced since solid trend wage
The solid trend in payroll growth has been maintained into February. Reduced labor market slack, illustrated by the decline in the unemployment rate since June 2003, appears to be putting upward pressure on wage increases.
energy perception prices
Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.
albeit contained core inflation informal range remains target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.
albeit contained core federal inflation informal range remains reserve target
Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.
allow doubt economics fed political politics pressure september
There's no doubt there's political pressure on the Fed to do nothing on September 20th. The Fed will allow economics to overrule the politics of the situation.
barrier fed interest lowering rates
There's no barrier to the Fed lowering interest rates significantly.
activity chicago ended good region year
Manufacturing activity in the Chicago region ended the year with good momentum.
average concerned economic fed further greenspan increase likely rather report signs weakness worrying
With the Fed maintaining an economic-weakness bias, Greenspan is more likely to be concerned with the signs of further economic weakness in this report rather than worrying about the increase in average hourly earnings.
concerns continues fed maintain production risk sector slack upside
From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
doubt economic forced four growth interest job last month per rates
If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.
core energy inflation overall prices pushing remains risk
With energy prices pushing up overall inflation again, there remains the risk of pass-through into core inflation.
easily energy increase largely report size
This report is largely an energy story, but the size of the increase can't be easily dismissed.
fed funds increasing meeting middle rate rising risk
We see the funds rate rising to 5% by the May 10 FOMC meeting and we see an increasing risk of a 5.25% fed fund rate by the middle of the year.