John Davidson
John Davidson
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I think I'm probably in the minority that thinks that Greenspan may raise rates on Tuesday. I think the real case is a fact that the labor market is really tight and commodity prices have really increased.
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You've seen how OPEC has had some discipline, and that's helped to support the price of oil, and maybe the gold players are seeing that if they use some discipline as well that that may also affect the gold price and their business.
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Some of that risk has been taken off the table. That can be seen in the falling price of oil and a rise in equities.
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The Federal Reserve's objective is two fold -- price stability and employment growth. All too often we think it's the Fed chairman's job to manage the stock market, when it's not.
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The market is reacting to the rise in oil prices and the conflicting economic news.
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I've talked about Key Energy Group for a while, and Capstone is one of the companies that's building these micro turbines that I think actually just reported last week and had a more negative number than expected because they've ramped up some of their production, As a result, that hit their expense line, ... But I think that's a good idea going forward.
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Energy's off a little bit today, but it doesn't mean that energy is going back down. We're starting into an earnings season and earnings will start to have an effect.
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Earnings have been strong and will continue to be strong, but there's a worry that rising rates will mean the multiple on the earnings will be less.
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Salaries are going to come down. I'm hearing the players have already offered a 5 percent give-back, so that's the starting point for negotiations.
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Even just a month ago, prior to the release of the March payrolls number, there were some investors betting that rates wouldn't rise until early next year. Now, after two months of higher payrolls, it seems likely rates are set to rise, and so there's a certain throwing in of the towel for some investors.
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Don't forget about the Gretzky factor, ... Don't underestimate him. He may take this team and give them a heck of a chance to get in. He'll bring something to the table that will make players give that extra effort that may win them a few games. He thinks way ahead of most people.
might next week
CPI and PPI next week could be a little light, so that might get some attention,
both series
You look at every series on both sides, this is great. I don't see a series that's going to be four-and-out.
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This will showcase contemporary Scottish design talent in an accessible way.