John Davidson
John Davidson
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I think we're in a good earnings season. So far, of the S&P 500, 139 companies have reported. Over 60 percent have been upward surprises, only 8 percent of them have really been negative surprises. So we're in a strong earnings season. That's good for the stock market, ... I think the market's in a trading range right now. I don't think it's going straight up from here. I don't think necessarily we're going to get a big summer rally, but maybe a positive tone to the market.
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Where does the bond guy put his money now? ... Stocks can absorb inflation more readily than bonds, because you can come through with better pricing power and stronger earnings.
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We had a pretty strong run up in anticipation of the earnings season. But because of that run, if any company reports declining results or results that are less than what was expected, you're going to see a strong reaction.
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The capacity utilization and industrial production number are forecast to show modest improvement, the housing number won't be as strong as it has been, but it'll still be strong. However, none of these data due tomorrow are really market-moving. I think stocks may be set to drift the rest of this week and into the close of the year.
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Earnings have been strong and will continue to be strong, but there's a worry that rising rates will mean the multiple on the earnings will be less.
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Maybe the market is looking for a stronger economic team. O'Neill has not been embraced by the Street and someone with stronger ties might make them happier.
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I think the most significant report for the whole week is the retail sales number tomorrow. You saw the bond market react today in expectation of a strong retail sales report, and I think people will be focused on that tomorrow.
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He may say something to the effect that the economy remains strong and that they will continue to raise rates.
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The market reacted pretty strongly to Friday's surprisingly weak employment report, and I think you're seeing the market in the process of digesting that now.
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What they say may have an impact tomorrow, but the dominant topic on investors' minds right now starts with an 'I' and it's not Intel. Both businesses and consumers are hesitant to make any moves until there's progress on Iraq.
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What's limiting us on the upside is the double-digit gains we saw in 2003. What limits us to the downside is that the economy continues to strengthen, although concerns about the job market persist.
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The ongoing issues are the strength of the economy and whether or not the pace of the recovery is in fact slowing down. One of the important things this week will be to see the extent of the damage.
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With thirty bob a week to keep a bride / He fell in love and married in his teens: / At thirty bob he stuck; but he knows it isn't luck: / He knows the seas are deeper than tureens.
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With Vice President Cheney saying we need 38,000 more miles, in addition to repairing existing ones, that Key Energy group is a key player there,