John Davidson
John Davidson
bush economy last needs next quickly turn
Bush needs pretty quickly to turn this economy around. If we languish for the next two years, it'll be the last two years of Bush's presidency.
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The belief has been that if the economy is recovering and corporate profits are improving, equity markets will fall in line eventually,
although concerns continues downside economy gains job limiting limits market saw upside
What's limiting us on the upside is the double-digit gains we saw in 2003. What limits us to the downside is that the economy continues to strengthen, although concerns about the job market persist.
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Despite the decline, the ISM report was very positive, and what you can take away from it is that the economy is continuing to expand. The question for 2004 is whether that continued expansion has already been reflected in the 25 percent returns you saw in stocks last year.
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The ongoing issues are the strength of the economy and whether or not the pace of the recovery is in fact slowing down. One of the important things this week will be to see the extent of the damage.
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I think we have continued volatility until we really see signs of growth in the economy slowing. When we see the economy slowing, I think that people will be more comfortable with the fact that maybe Greenspan is not going to have to continue to raise rates, then I think the market can move ahead.
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Greenspan talked very little about the current state of the economy and was really admonishing lawmakers, and he made it very clear that there will be no interest-rate cut announced after the meeting on Sept. 24. I think this may have disappointed some investors hoping for a rate cut or something more aggressive to help stocks.
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He may say something to the effect that the economy remains strong and that they will continue to raise rates.
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I'm looking for a recovery in the economy in the second half of the year, contingent on a continued aggressive Fed and a tax cut. I see a consumer-led recovery in the second half and that will help give us an earnings boost.
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I've talked about Key Energy Group for a while, and Capstone is one of the companies that's building these micro turbines that I think actually just reported last week and had a more negative number than expected because they've ramped up some of their production, As a result, that hit their expense line, ... But I think that's a good idea going forward.
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Energy's off a little bit today, but it doesn't mean that energy is going back down. We're starting into an earnings season and earnings will start to have an effect.
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Earnings have been strong and will continue to be strong, but there's a worry that rising rates will mean the multiple on the earnings will be less.
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Salaries are going to come down. I'm hearing the players have already offered a 5 percent give-back, so that's the starting point for negotiations.
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Even just a month ago, prior to the release of the March payrolls number, there were some investors betting that rates wouldn't rise until early next year. Now, after two months of higher payrolls, it seems likely rates are set to rise, and so there's a certain throwing in of the towel for some investors.