John Davidson
John Davidson
building companies energy expected expense good group hit key last negative number reported talked week
I've talked about Key Energy Group for a while, and Capstone is one of the companies that's building these micro turbines that I think actually just reported last week and had a more negative number than expected because they've ramped up some of their production, As a result, that hit their expense line, ... But I think that's a good idea going forward.
might next week
CPI and PPI next week could be a little light, so that might get some attention,
basis economic flip focusing half last news obviously people percentage points ready until week
Obviously people are focusing on the FOMC announcement, ... Up until last week I was ready to flip over to 50 basis points (a half percentage point) but we've had some economic news that's been pretty good.
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This week they're worried more about the earnings warnings. The lack of the upward drive has allowed the stocks to drift lower.
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With thirty bob a week to keep a bride / He fell in love and married in his teens: / At thirty bob he stuck; but he knows it isn't luck: / He knows the seas are deeper than tureens.
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The ongoing issues are the strength of the economy and whether or not the pace of the recovery is in fact slowing down. One of the important things this week will be to see the extent of the damage.
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I think the most significant report for the whole week is the retail sales number tomorrow. You saw the bond market react today in expectation of a strong retail sales report, and I think people will be focused on that tomorrow.
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I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
good indicator likely market past seeing today week
I think what you're seeing today and over the past week is a good indicator of where the market is right now and will likely be through the end of the year.
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But I think people's focus next week is not going to be Wall Street, it's going to be the holidays. I think you'll see a modestly up week.
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The capacity utilization and industrial production number are forecast to show modest improvement, the housing number won't be as strong as it has been, but it'll still be strong. However, none of these data due tomorrow are really market-moving. I think stocks may be set to drift the rest of this week and into the close of the year.
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The market has now fully reflected its belief in a second-half pick up, but for the kind of rally we've seen to continue, you're going to need to start seeing evidence. The weekly jobless claims number this morning is a start, but it's not enough. We could be bouncing around in the next few weeks.
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Energy's off a little bit today, but it doesn't mean that energy is going back down. We're starting into an earnings season and earnings will start to have an effect.
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Earnings have been strong and will continue to be strong, but there's a worry that rising rates will mean the multiple on the earnings will be less.