Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
assuming chinese higher japanese nobody rates spark wants
Assuming the spark does not happen, it can go on much longer, ... Nobody wants it to stop. We don't want to contemplate sharply higher rates and prices. The Japanese and Chinese don't want to contemplate it either.
companies environment good rate rates rising
In general, a rising rate environment slows down growth, so most companies are not going to go as good as when rates are low.
begin foreign interest lose rate securities
Once interest rate differentials begin to narrow, U.S. securities will lose some of their luster to foreign investors.
dollar few imagine low maybe move next
I imagine we'll move into low 60's (billion dollar range), maybe even mid-60's, in next few months,
exports grow imports large oil tall throw top twice
Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.
anyone cut easy gap recession spending states trade united wants
It's very easy to get the trade gap to narrow, have a recession in the United States to cut spending here. But I don't think anyone wants that to happen.
ability bad benign consumer fed gives pause price readings stocks surprise
An upward surprise in the (producer price index and consumer price index) would be bad for stocks ... but if you get benign readings (this) week, that gives the Fed the ability to be able to pause if necessary.
feat seems tall
That seems like a tall feat right now.
insurance outlook remains
The insurance payments are going to go away. The outlook remains very bleak.
assistance card current entire european kingdom largely rebuilding states stick united
European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab.
far fed report
As far as the scorekeeping at the Fed is concerned, today's report will go down in the 'reasons to tighten further' column,
barriers brunt buy caused financing foreigners less point prices production reduction signs slowing sooner spending stop trade
Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.
growth half percentage point sliced
That sliced off about a half a percentage point in growth.
core overall people strength tend weakness
People tend to look at core to get a look at overall strength and weakness of the economy,