Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
data exports increases marked recent sharp strength surprise
The real surprise is the strength in exports. These sharp increases in computer-related exports corroborate recent U.S. industrial-production data that show marked strength in high-tech industries.
activity although consistent data decline economic november pace recent smaller suggest
Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.
consistent data economy economy-and-economics struggling
The import data are consistent with an economy that is struggling to find its footing.
assistance card current entire european kingdom largely rebuilding states stick united
European governments have a card they could play in the current crisis: token assistance in the rebuilding of Iraq, which would largely stick the United States and the United Kingdom with the entire tab.
core overall people strength tend weakness
People tend to look at core to get a look at overall strength and weakness of the economy,
barriers brunt buy caused financing foreigners less point prices production reduction signs slowing sooner spending stop trade
Sooner or later, foreigners will stop financing the deficit. But at this point they show no signs of slowing down. If there were trade barriers that caused Americans to buy significantly less imports, production here would go up a little, but the thing that would take the brunt of the reduction is that our spending would go down as prices went up. We would have less of everything.
assuming chinese higher japanese nobody rates spark wants
Assuming the spark does not happen, it can go on much longer, ... Nobody wants it to stop. We don't want to contemplate sharply higher rates and prices. The Japanese and Chinese don't want to contemplate it either.
agree certainly greater month recession risk today
I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.
begin dollar
When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate.
achilles dependence economy europe foreign heel
The Achilles heel of the U.S. economy is its dependence on foreign capital...which may be the only way that Europe can keep American unilateralism in check,
abroad although exports grown guess june maybe picking quarter recent second signs soon surprise weaker
I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.
badly budget conflict deficits destroy dollar eye far holding negative start stuck tab time
If things start to go really badly in Iraq, and we have a long conflict and have to destroy a lot of infrastructure, that would be very dollar negative because we will get stuck holding a lot of the tab for that, at a time when we have budget deficits going out as far as the eye can see.
expect fed hike people rates
Most people expect that the Fed will hike short-term rates more than the 10-year (yield) will go up this year.
anyway billion deficit dollar expectation high increase looking low mid sounds trade
My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.