Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
abroad although exports grown guess june maybe picking quarter recent second signs soon surprise weaker
I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.
badly budget conflict deficits destroy dollar eye far holding negative start stuck tab time
If things start to go really badly in Iraq, and we have a long conflict and have to destroy a lot of infrastructure, that would be very dollar negative because we will get stuck holding a lot of the tab for that, at a time when we have budget deficits going out as far as the eye can see.
anyway billion deficit dollar expectation high increase looking low mid sounds trade
My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.
expect fed hike people rates
Most people expect that the Fed will hike short-term rates more than the 10-year (yield) will go up this year.
swing
Obviously, this quarterly swing is a one-off event.
congress europeans flak happen happened obviously point sooner
Obviously they're getting a lot of flak from Congress and the Europeans as well. It was going to happen at some point anyway. It probably happened sooner than it would have if Congress and the administration hadn't said anything,
bigger near
The deficit's probably going to get bigger in the near term.
continuing labor market shows
It shows the labor market is continuing to stabilize.
spend
It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.
fed looking resources stretched
That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy.
activity although consistent data decline economic november pace recent smaller suggest
Although little should be made of one month's data, the smaller pace of import decline in November is consistent with other recent data that suggest that U.S. economic activity may be stabilizing.
none others showing
I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.
account china current deficit external financing large means overall rather requires spends trade
If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.
deficit demand few given higher imports increase next oil overall robust
We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.