Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
insurance outlook remains
The insurance payments are going to go away. The outlook remains very bleak.
none others showing
I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.
begin foreign interest lose rate securities
Once interest rate differentials begin to narrow, U.S. securities will lose some of their luster to foreign investors.
amount billion economy fair figures momentum oil prices quarter reason third trade
The economy in the third quarter had a fair amount of momentum and oil prices were skyrocketing. You are going to see some $60 billion trade figures if for no other reason than the price of oil.
headline number people underlying weaker
The headline number was weaker than what people expected. But when you look down into the underlying details, it's not as weak as what that headline number would suggest.
consistent data economy economy-and-economics struggling
The import data are consistent with an economy that is struggling to find its footing.
although cut durable easing fed feels goods last meeting orders prevent rate strong turnaround
Although durable goods orders bounced back last month, the turnaround is not strong or broad-based enough to prevent the Fed from easing at the Dec. 11 meeting if it feels that another rate cut is appropriate.
concerns higher interest jump markets raises rates reacting seeing shock
The markets are reacting to the shock of seeing a jump in import prices. It raises concerns about inflationary pressures, and higher interest rates down the road.
chinese cost goods lower means spend
The lower cost of Chinese goods means we can spend more on other goods and services.
fed impact likely march taken
The March CPI data, taken in isolation, likely will have very little impact on near-term Fed policy,
dollar few imagine low maybe move next
I imagine we'll move into low 60's (billion dollar range), maybe even mid-60's, in next few months,
companies environment good rate rates rising
In general, a rising rate environment slows down growth, so most companies are not going to go as good as when rates are low.
exports grow imports large oil tall throw top twice
Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.