Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
bull continue crude declines disruption full inventory massive oil premium prices relentless run supply winter
Massive inventory declines in crude oil are part of a three-month trend, heating oil prices continue their relentless rise, and the supply disruption premium is in full effect. This may only be the beginning; the winter oil bull run has begun.
critical cut despite disruption energy event growth haunts likely next oil quite seems slower specter supply today unlikely
OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.
drop leading situation supply
This is a situation where you've got a lot of supply on hand, leading to a drop in prices.
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The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.
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The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.
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Given OPEC's decision to keep quotas unchanged, Iranian guarantees of oil supply and U.S. statements excluding the possibility of oil sanctions, crude is poised to fall next week.
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Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.
hit hitting next today whether
Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.
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What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
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We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
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There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.
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The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.
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Regardless of how large the draws are expected to be, especially in gasoline, seeing the actual numbers will be a shock.