Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
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The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.
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The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.
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Massive inventory declines in crude oil are part of a three-month trend, heating oil prices continue their relentless rise, and the supply disruption premium is in full effect. This may only be the beginning; the winter oil bull run has begun.
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Given OPEC's decision to keep quotas unchanged, Iranian guarantees of oil supply and U.S. statements excluding the possibility of oil sanctions, crude is poised to fall next week.
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This is a situation where you've got a lot of supply on hand, leading to a drop in prices.
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OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.
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Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.
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With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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The service sector performed well, with new orders rising, prices declining and employment inching up.
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The stock market is reacting to the strong earnings reports we've seen earlier today. But sooner or later, companies may have to start passing through the increase in energy costs or be hurt by it.
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The sky isn't falling, just new non-defense aircraft orders.
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Is inflation dead? Not yet. If this moderating of inflationary pressures were to appear in the other reports, it could bode well for the economy.
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The worst possible outcome for the stock market is that it takes a month to decide the election,
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The saber-rattling on both sides of the table has led to some pricing in of risk, but it's quite conceivable we could see prices go back to $60, even the high $50s, if this dispute reaches a resolution or even a stalemate.