Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
average gasoline likely pump records
With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.
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Prices went a lot higher than most of us expected a year ago. The factors that caused prices to surge aren't likely to go away next year. The volatility of the market may even increase.
likely prices
At this point, at these prices we're not likely to see a cut. Politically that is not feasible.
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Next week is a huge week for data, and it is likely to show continued economic growth and inflation well under control.
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A correction seems likely if we don't see a further intensifying of the geopolitical crisis. There will have to be further headlines for prices to move higher.
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Strong levels of unfilled orders imply a strong U.S. economy and implicitly indicate more manufacturing in the pipelines. Clearly, the industrial sector is likely to remain strong in the near- and medium-term.
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We're likely to see prices continue to trend upward. The biggest potential to push prices down is going to be an increase in supply, but right now supplies look pretty fixed.
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There is justification for concern about natural gas prices at these levels. Prices now are essentially twice what they were last winter. That's likely to squeeze consumers.
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The call to establish more refineries is likely to be sounded again.
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A couple of weeks ago we saw prices were moving toward $70 again. This is a very volatile marketplace but I think on the whole we are likely to see the average price this year higher than last year.
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Oil prices fell through the first half of last month, but commodity prices are still somewhat elevated and we're likely to see energy bounce back in the March report.
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OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.
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If it remains this close to 2 percent, then I think economically speaking, we're sitting pretty. I don't think this changes what the Fed does in May. I think another rate hike is likely then. But I think it stems the talk of rates rising as high as 5.25 percent, at least for now.
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He is more likely to focus on geopolitical and security issues. But he might also talk about the job and housing markets.