Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
bank business central good improved investment laying news stay wants
The good news is the surge in business investment is laying the groundwork for improved growth. This is what the central bank wants and so they will stay on the sidelines.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
capacity capital continue exports highlights investment report struggling third
Exports are struggling to get traction. The monthly report highlights the capacity constraints in Australia. We need a lot more capital investment to alleviate the bottlenecks. Exports will continue to take away from GDP in the third quarter.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
business capital credit few good growth last needed positive quite rebound strong weak
Business credit growth had been quite weak for the last few months, so a good strong rebound in business borrowings is a positive for capital expenditure, which is needed in Australia.
add annual australia cash economic fall forecast inflation numbers rate recent soft unchanged
Recent soft economic numbers for Australia and the fall in the annual rate of inflation add up to an unchanged cash rate on Wednesday. In fact, we forecast an unchanged rate for all of 2006.
arms bank confirm further oil open ride sidelines sit stage welcome
I think the bank (RBA) will welcome that with open arms and it will further confirm their idea to sit on the sidelines at this stage and ride out the blip in oil prices.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
ahead confidence consumer further home house oil prices weakness
There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.
commodity gradually peak prices pushed timing
We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.
certainly demand export hoping plenty prices product rebound shaky sustained volumes
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.