Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
fully hike rate
A rate hike is now 50-50 in May and fully priced by June.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.
add annual australia cash economic fall forecast inflation numbers rate recent soft unchanged
Recent soft economic numbers for Australia and the fall in the annual rate of inflation add up to an unchanged cash rate on Wednesday. In fact, we forecast an unchanged rate for all of 2006.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
building capacity corporate driver growth home household principal replaced spending
Corporate spending, particularly in mining, has replaced household spending and home building as the principal driver of growth in the economy. It will also alleviate capacity constraints in the economy.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
business capital credit few good growth last needed positive quite rebound strong weak
Business credit growth had been quite weak for the last few months, so a good strong rebound in business borrowings is a positive for capital expenditure, which is needed in Australia.
below exports market
It's a pretty disappointing number, much below market expectations and our own. Exports were particularly disappointing.
bank companies consumers content cranking happy passing pressure price rather reserve result retailers sit wearing
The Reserve Bank will be happy with this result and be content to sit on the sidelines. Companies are wearing some of the price pressure rather than passing it on. When consumers are tightening their purses, retailers don't want to be cranking up prices.