Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
confidence consumer difficult eight fallen five last months signals
Consumer confidence has fallen five times in the last eight months and signals that the difficult times are not over for households.
commodity gradually peak prices pushed timing
We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.
certainly demand export hoping plenty prices product rebound shaky sustained volumes
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.
across faster hit input means output prices production rising stages taking
Input prices are rising a lot faster than output prices, which means manufacturers across all stages of production are taking a hit to their margins.
capacity capital continue exports highlights investment report struggling third
Exports are struggling to get traction. The monthly report highlights the capacity constraints in Australia. We need a lot more capital investment to alleviate the bottlenecks. Exports will continue to take away from GDP in the third quarter.
bank business central good improved investment laying news stay wants
The good news is the surge in business investment is laying the groundwork for improved growth. This is what the central bank wants and so they will stay on the sidelines.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
arms bank confirm further oil open ride sidelines sit stage welcome
I think the bank (RBA) will welcome that with open arms and it will further confirm their idea to sit on the sidelines at this stage and ride out the blip in oil prices.
ahead confidence consumer further home house oil prices weakness
There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.
add annual australia cash economic fall forecast inflation numbers rate recent soft unchanged
Recent soft economic numbers for Australia and the fall in the annual rate of inflation add up to an unchanged cash rate on Wednesday. In fact, we forecast an unchanged rate for all of 2006.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.
although assess digest forecasts fully looking market pause rita taking until yesterday
The market is now taking a pause to assess just what Rita will do. It won't fully digest Rita until Monday, although the forecasts are looking a little better than yesterday at present.