Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
certainly demand export hoping plenty prices product rebound shaky sustained volumes
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.
commodity gradually peak prices pushed timing
We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
bank companies consumers content cranking happy passing pressure price rather reserve result retailers sit wearing
The Reserve Bank will be happy with this result and be content to sit on the sidelines. Companies are wearing some of the price pressure rather than passing it on. When consumers are tightening their purses, retailers don't want to be cranking up prices.
bank ease reserve
The Reserve Bank has no need to tighten or to ease rates.
fully hike rate
A rate hike is now 50-50 in May and fully priced by June.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
arms bank confirm further oil open ride sidelines sit stage welcome
I think the bank (RBA) will welcome that with open arms and it will further confirm their idea to sit on the sidelines at this stage and ride out the blip in oil prices.
add annual australia cash economic fall forecast inflation numbers rate recent soft unchanged
Recent soft economic numbers for Australia and the fall in the annual rate of inflation add up to an unchanged cash rate on Wednesday. In fact, we forecast an unchanged rate for all of 2006.
ahead confidence consumer further home house oil prices weakness
There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
across faster hit input means output prices production rising stages taking
Input prices are rising a lot faster than output prices, which means manufacturers across all stages of production are taking a hit to their margins.
alter downside economic growth large outlook surprise
The downside surprise on economic growth was not large enough to alter the outlook significantly.
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.