Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
capacity capital continue exports highlights investment report struggling third
Exports are struggling to get traction. The monthly report highlights the capacity constraints in Australia. We need a lot more capital investment to alleviate the bottlenecks. Exports will continue to take away from GDP in the third quarter.
below exports market
It's a pretty disappointing number, much below market expectations and our own. Exports were particularly disappointing.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
building capacity corporate driver growth home household principal replaced spending
Corporate spending, particularly in mining, has replaced household spending and home building as the principal driver of growth in the economy. It will also alleviate capacity constraints in the economy.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
business capital credit few good growth last needed positive quite rebound strong weak
Business credit growth had been quite weak for the last few months, so a good strong rebound in business borrowings is a positive for capital expenditure, which is needed in Australia.
bank business central good improved investment laying news stay wants
The good news is the surge in business investment is laying the groundwork for improved growth. This is what the central bank wants and so they will stay on the sidelines.