Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
believe continue drivers growth less turning underlying
We continue to believe that the underlying drivers of productivity growth are turning less favorable,
cannot clear consumer continue debt disposable form grow households income lengthy maybe percent period save spending subdued sure violent
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
confidence consumer easily huge number september tuesday
The September consumer confidence number on Tuesday is going to be pretty interesting. You could easily get a huge decline.
action blow boost expected hussein lower military oil point prices saddam smoothly war
At this point I would have expected more of a boost from lower oil prices. If you'd told me before the war that the military action would go as smoothly as it did and that Saddam Hussein didn't blow up his oil facilities, I would have thought oil prices would be lower.
cut might start though
What will be nice, though it's unimaginable right now, is to start forecasting when they might be able to cut rates.
april employment entered firmly job likely underlying
We will likely see some 'payback' for the blockbuster April report, which probably exaggerates the underlying job trend. (The latest) ISM index confirms that manufacturing employment has firmly entered contraction territory.
available exhausting otherwise pool unemployed
We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers.
believe capital fact funds holding plausible spending
It's not plausible that capital spending has been weakened by the fact that multinationals are holding their funds abroad. I just don't believe that story.
data gone
I've gone from being a data maven to a weatherman, ... Just to think that before today, I didn't know what an 'eye-wall replacement cycle' was.
below beyond economic growth half hurdle percent second seems slow strong trend
Economic growth will be pretty strong in the first half and then slow to below trend in the second half. It seems to me that the hurdle for going beyond 5 percent is still pretty high.
coming far guy meeting next room wiggle
It makes sense they would make it a little more open, just because the next meeting is still pretty far away, and when you have a new guy coming in you want to give him as much wiggle room as possible.
committing driving increases market rate rise roof saying stock themselves third trying
They want to see how these first two rate increases go first. They are trying to straddle between not committing themselves to a third rate rise and not driving the stock market through the roof by saying they're done.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind. It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind, ... It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.