Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
cut might start though
What will be nice, though it's unimaginable right now, is to start forecasting when they might be able to cut rates.
december figures fourth friday gains given income likelihood low quarter reported strong
Income figures ... were surprisingly low for December given the strong gains reported for the fourth quarter on Friday and the likelihood that bonuses would have boosted December gains.
below beyond economic growth half hurdle percent second seems slow strong trend
Economic growth will be pretty strong in the first half and then slow to below trend in the second half. It seems to me that the hurdle for going beyond 5 percent is still pretty high.
change close either fed interest
nothing suggests that the Fed is close to a change in interest rates, in either direction.
certainly consumer numbers
The consumer numbers are certainly more important than normal.
cannot clear consumer continue debt disposable form grow households income lengthy maybe percent period save spending subdued sure violent
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
data gone
I've gone from being a data maven to a weatherman, ... Just to think that before today, I didn't know what an 'eye-wall replacement cycle' was.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind. It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind, ... It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
clear determined message quite
The message is pretty clear here: they are quite determined to keep going.
committing driving increases market rate rise roof saying stock themselves third trying
They want to see how these first two rate increases go first. They are trying to straddle between not committing themselves to a third rate rise and not driving the stock market through the roof by saying they're done.
action blow boost expected hussein lower military oil point prices saddam smoothly war
At this point I would have expected more of a boost from lower oil prices. If you'd told me before the war that the military action would go as smoothly as it did and that Saddam Hussein didn't blow up his oil facilities, I would have thought oil prices would be lower.
couple jobs reports
This is probably one of the most important jobs reports that we have had in a couple of years.
categories due gains given recent strong
Some slippage in other categories is probably due given very strong gains in recent months.