Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
cannot clear consumer continue debt disposable form grow households income lengthy maybe percent period save spending subdued sure violent
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind. It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind, ... It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
advance cut difficult economy harder months percent predict six weak year
A year ago, it was not that difficult to predict six months in advance where they were going to be. That's going to be harder when you are at 5 percent and you think the economy is going to be weak enough to get them to cut rates.
below beyond economic growth half hurdle percent second seems slow strong trend
Economic growth will be pretty strong in the first half and then slow to below trend in the second half. It seems to me that the hurdle for going beyond 5 percent is still pretty high.
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At this point I would have expected more of a boost from lower oil prices. If you'd told me before the war that the military action would go as smoothly as it did and that Saddam Hussein didn't blow up his oil facilities, I would have thought oil prices would be lower.
april employment entered firmly job likely underlying
We will likely see some 'payback' for the blockbuster April report, which probably exaggerates the underlying job trend. (The latest) ISM index confirms that manufacturing employment has firmly entered contraction territory.
available exhausting otherwise pool unemployed
We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers.
data looks alternatives
While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.
data negative wealth
Biggest pent-up negative wealth effect you can see in the economic data going back to 1952.
available business charges gross hour matters net output overall per sector worked
What matters for our well-being is the net output -- remember, depreciation charges are not available for consumption -- per person in the overall economy, not the gross output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector alone,
cut might start though
What will be nice, though it's unimaginable right now, is to start forecasting when they might be able to cut rates.
adjustment beginning consumer debt economy growth household means next normal rate rather savings spending temporary
Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.
finances fiscal household monetary namely plausible remain sector spending stimulus whose
There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,