Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
data negative wealth
Biggest pent-up negative wealth effect you can see in the economic data going back to 1952.
aiming hike leave march open question whether
What they're going to be aiming for is to leave open the question of whether they hike on March 28.
bit found future good indication indicator industrial latest moderation movements possible ratio rose shipments straw wind
The ratio of inventories to shipments rose a bit in the latest month. We have found movements in this ratio to be a good indicator of industrial activity. Just a straw in the wind at this point, but a possible indication of future moderation in the sector.
believe bubble consumer dry equity gains home households housing large likely market recent share spending supplement ultimately
We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.
advance cut difficult economy harder months percent predict six weak year
A year ago, it was not that difficult to predict six months in advance where they were going to be. That's going to be harder when you are at 5 percent and you think the economy is going to be weak enough to get them to cut rates.
headline increase large lead likely oil prices renewed
A renewed surge in oil prices is likely to lead to a large headline PPI increase for January.
couple jobs reports
This is probably one of the most important jobs reports that we have had in a couple of years.
categories due gains given recent strong
Some slippage in other categories is probably due given very strong gains in recent months.
average dog far neutral oil past
Oil is the dog that didn't bark. It's neutral because it's not far away from the average of where it's been over the past year.
adjustment beginning consumer debt economy growth household means next normal rate rather savings spending temporary
Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.
finances fiscal household monetary namely plausible remain sector spending stimulus whose
There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,
available business charges gross hour matters net output overall per sector worked
What matters for our well-being is the net output -- remember, depreciation charges are not available for consumption -- per person in the overall economy, not the gross output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector alone,
high invest margins
High margins are an inducement to invest more aggressively.
clear determined message quite
The message is pretty clear here: they are quite determined to keep going.