Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
confidence consumer easily huge number september tuesday
The September consumer confidence number on Tuesday is going to be pretty interesting. You could easily get a huge decline.
believe bubble consumer dry equity gains home households housing large likely market recent share spending supplement ultimately
We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.
adjustment beginning consumer debt economy growth household means next normal rate rather savings spending temporary
Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.
cannot clear consumer continue debt disposable form grow households income lengthy maybe percent period save spending subdued sure violent
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
certainly consumer numbers
The consumer numbers are certainly more important than normal.
action blow boost expected hussein lower military oil point prices saddam smoothly war
At this point I would have expected more of a boost from lower oil prices. If you'd told me before the war that the military action would go as smoothly as it did and that Saddam Hussein didn't blow up his oil facilities, I would have thought oil prices would be lower.
believe continue drivers growth less turning underlying
We continue to believe that the underlying drivers of productivity growth are turning less favorable,
cut might start though
What will be nice, though it's unimaginable right now, is to start forecasting when they might be able to cut rates.
april employment entered firmly job likely underlying
We will likely see some 'payback' for the blockbuster April report, which probably exaggerates the underlying job trend. (The latest) ISM index confirms that manufacturing employment has firmly entered contraction territory.
available exhausting otherwise pool unemployed
We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers.
believe capital fact funds holding plausible spending
It's not plausible that capital spending has been weakened by the fact that multinationals are holding their funds abroad. I just don't believe that story.
data gone
I've gone from being a data maven to a weatherman, ... Just to think that before today, I didn't know what an 'eye-wall replacement cycle' was.
below beyond economic growth half hurdle percent second seems slow strong trend
Economic growth will be pretty strong in the first half and then slow to below trend in the second half. It seems to me that the hurdle for going beyond 5 percent is still pretty high.
coming far guy meeting next room wiggle
It makes sense they would make it a little more open, just because the next meeting is still pretty far away, and when you have a new guy coming in you want to give him as much wiggle room as possible.