James Awad
James Awad
apparent clearly cost embedded exactly fed gains great growth increases issue itself market mean period profits retail slowing stock strong successful tough troubling volume worrying
I think retail is going to be a very tough place to make money. What's worrying the market now is -- if the Fed is successful in slowing the economy, what does it mean for profits going forward? And that is apparent - that's more clearly an issue in retail than anyplace else. But it is an issue in the market itself that you're going into a period here where profit growth may decelerate; in fact, could flatten out as you have volume gains decelerate in a slowing economy, but cost increases embedded in from the period when you had a strong economy; and that's not exactly a great prescription for profits, and I think that's troubling the stock market,
continues economy factory oil orders people seeing strong turned
You would think that with oil so high, we would be seeing some pressure. But I think the strong read on factory orders turned things around, as it reassures people that the economy continues to strengthen.
almost commodity corporate earnings high reasons strongest worried worry
There are a lot of reasons to worry about corporate earnings because of gasoline, oil, high commodity prices. It's almost like damned if you do, damned if you don't, because you're worried about what these commodities are doing to the economy, yet they're the strongest thing in the market.
coming driving earnings force higher interest market overcome quarter rates results strong weeks
The driving force for the market over coming weeks is going to be earnings -- what were the first quarter results and what is the outlook. You need strong earnings to overcome the headwinds of higher interest rates and inflation, because those aren't going away.
company data earnings eventual gaining growth hardware market percent product products risk share software stock strong taking tech turnaround
This is a low-cost way to play the eventual turnaround in technology, ... They're a very strong distributor of hardware and software products and it's gaining market share on its competitors. The stock is $25 on $2.35 of earnings and you're not taking product risk -- you're 11 times earnings on Tech Data for the company that's got a 20 percent long-term growth rate.
companies period tech
We're going to go through a period where we find out what tech companies are really what they thought they were and which were hype.
coming housing negative numbers oil positive today worse
The positive today is that oil is coming down, the negative is that the housing numbers are worse than expected.
economy fact signs
There are some signs that the economy is not getting worse, in fact it is getting better.
call
I think what you're in now is what we'll call the
becoming technology
I think what you have in technology is it's becoming a stock-by-stock issue,
bear highs interest market terms unlikely
I think it's unlikely that you'll get a bear market because the fundamentals are too good. On the other hand, you're not going to make new highs in the market as long as we have uncertainty in terms of interest rates,
clearing corporate election increase mergers next percent profits
With the election clearing the deck, I think you'll see more momentum. If you're going to have a 10 percent increase in corporate profits next year, I don't see why you couldn't be up 20 percent (in mergers and acquisitions).
almost analysis dangerous levels market momentum securities
It's been a 'no-brainer' momentum market where securities analysis isn't important, and now you have almost dangerous valuation levels on those stocks,
earnings far period
On balance, the earnings period so far has been very reasonable, even better than expected.