James Awad
James Awad
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I think retail is going to be a very tough place to make money. What's worrying the market now is -- if the Fed is successful in slowing the economy, what does it mean for profits going forward? And that is apparent - that's more clearly an issue in retail than anyplace else. But it is an issue in the market itself that you're going into a period here where profit growth may decelerate; in fact, could flatten out as you have volume gains decelerate in a slowing economy, but cost increases embedded in from the period when you had a strong economy; and that's not exactly a great prescription for profits, and I think that's troubling the stock market,
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You're getting a little bit of a setback after two up days, and a sense of people wanting to wait until they hear what the Fed has to say at the Sept. 20th meeting.
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The Fed officials are talking very optimistically. Uniformly they were out there, on the tape yesterday and in interviews, saying that they are expecting a second-half recovery and looking for signs of a bottom sometime, very soon in the economy. So, you are going to have to watch the news very carefully going forward. I don't think anybody really knows. But if you listen to the Fed, you have maybe one more rate cut and then an improving economy.
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If there is one more cut, it is the last one. I don't think people are really going to be looking to the Fed to help us any more,
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When all is said and done, third-quarter earnings will probably be good and fourth-quarter forecasts good enough to cool some of the worries about inflationary pressures hurting corporate profits,
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When all is said and done, I think the market will sprint higher toward the end of the year. But it's going to take continued encouraging earnings and economic reports to move it along.
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What's gonna happen here is you're going to see a cat and mouse game between Bush and Iraq for some time. I suspect that a month from now we'll be back to where we were yesterday before the letter came out.
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The stock is cheap, not well followed, and I think it's undervalued, ... The stock currently trades at about $21, and I think it will earn about $2.60 a share for the year.
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The stock is at $24 a share now, down from $50, ... The company is extremely well positioned, the stock could go up 10 points if there is evidence that the economy turns in third quarter.
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The risk is we are staring down the barrel of negative pre-announcements, so the market has the potential to be disappointed short term.
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There's really nothing you can do about it because you need a parking spot.
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Price-to-earnings ratios are high by historic standards, but the bulls would say that, given low interest rates, they're not too expensive. I think they're generally not convincingly cheap or expensive -- the key is to find individual stocks that are cheap.
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The tradeoff and struggle in the market is the power of good earnings and the strength of the economy against the fear of higher interest rates and rising oil prices,
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The trade deficit has always lurked in the background as a potential negative for stocks, but it was fine (in the past) because the dollar was strong.