James Awad
James Awad
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When all is said and done, I think the market will sprint higher toward the end of the year. But it's going to take continued encouraging earnings and economic reports to move it along.
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The risk is we are staring down the barrel of negative pre-announcements, so the market has the potential to be disappointed short term.
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The tradeoff and struggle in the market is the power of good earnings and the strength of the economy against the fear of higher interest rates and rising oil prices,
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I think retail is going to be a very tough place to make money. What's worrying the market now is -- if the Fed is successful in slowing the economy, what does it mean for profits going forward? And that is apparent - that's more clearly an issue in retail than anyplace else. But it is an issue in the market itself that you're going into a period here where profit growth may decelerate; in fact, could flatten out as you have volume gains decelerate in a slowing economy, but cost increases embedded in from the period when you had a strong economy; and that's not exactly a great prescription for profits, and I think that's troubling the stock market,
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I don't think we'll get any big surprises in the economic news next week, ... What the market will be looking for are any clues that point to anything other than four percent GDP (gross domestic product) growth.
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The best time in the stock market is when interest rates are low and earnings are poised to grow.
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The best news is cresting right now, ... so it very well may be that we had a fabulous run in the market from March 2003 to January 2004, we've sort of marked time since then, and we'll roll over for the rest of the year until we get better visibility on 2005.
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The basic factors that caused the market to go down remain in place, and I think those worries are going to be with us for the next couple of months, ... certainly until we get third-quarter earnings reports, and maybe through the election.
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It's been a 'no-brainer' momentum market where securities analysis isn't important, and now you have almost dangerous valuation levels on those stocks,
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The vulnerability is in individual stocks rather than in the market, ... Any company that misses its earnings is going to get brutally punished. The market has very low tolerance for companies that miss their earnings, and it goes back to the fact that everybody's paid on performance and it's difficult for people to have a long-term view.
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This market isn't going to turn around until investors see the whites of the eyes of a profit recovery, and you're not likely to see that until the fourth quarter.
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This is the wakeup call. We're going to go through a test here where we're going to have a period of turbulence in the market as we report second-quarter earnings and get forward-looking guidance for the third quarter.
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This is the wakeup call, ... We're going to go through a test here where we're going to have a period of turbulence in the market as we report second-quarter earnings and get forward-looking guidance for the third quarter.
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The building blocks of a bear market are not there. It's a correction and it will probably go on for a little bit longer, but I think by the end of April the flood of good corporate earnings reports will overwhelm the negative sentiment that you are getting now.