Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
becomes blue bush call fat feeling might radical ribbon start talking target tax
The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
people rhetoric stealing talking three turned ugly
This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,
appeals date due felt great jackson job judge late microsoft moved opening people process talked yesterday
Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
late microsoft people talked yesterday
Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,
comparable delay markets perceive talking temporary
This is not comparable to 2000. If we were talking 3,000 or 4,000 votes, it'd be a big story. But I think the markets will perceive this as a temporary delay of the inevitable.
affect august helps hike issues jones market people pocketbook rate sold talk
I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.
adage bad careful classic karma prove smacks start talking turns wish
I think it's bad karma when you start talking down your own currency; it smacks of desperation. If this turns into a rout, that will prove that classic adage -- be careful what you wish for.
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
binge case compelling consumer raise spending
The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
chance cliche days december drag markets true won
I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
drag fear hard months spin
It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
changed earnings second thinking
It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
backing candidates conclude labor last organized
The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
attractive attracts currency states street strong types united wall
The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.