Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
bands dollar europe exchange fed gold officials price robert travel wedding
If they exchange gold wedding bands (the) price of gold will go up. If they travel to Europe on their honeymoon, the dollar will strengthen. If (Treasury Secretary) Robert Rubin and other administration officials are there, the Fed won't tighten again.
bigger commentary concern key knows markets nobody obviously patch price soft understanding
That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
becomes blue bush call fat feeling might radical ribbon start talking target tax
The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
binge case compelling consumer raise spending
The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
drag fear hard months spin
It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
changed earnings second thinking
It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
backing candidates conclude labor last organized
The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
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The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
people rhetoric stealing talking three turned ugly
This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,
almost angst billion cut cuts five mild spending though
Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
late microsoft people talked yesterday
Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,