Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
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Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.
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We should have economic growth of more than 3 percent this quarter. I think the Fed is concerned about a possible housing bubble and about us getting close to full employment. I think this is one of the rare occasions were the market has it wrong.
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That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.
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That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.
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The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
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This is not comparable to 2000. If we were talking 3,000 or 4,000 votes, it'd be a big story. But I think the markets will perceive this as a temporary delay of the inevitable.
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I think what we all are hoping for is resolution sooner rather than later. I'm not sure that Gore's speech at noon today would reinforce the belief that this would get wrapped up quickly. (Some) segments of the market will do well whether it's Microsoft or drug stocks, but I think it might be a little bit premature.
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I think it (Friday's report) is incredibly important from a market point of view. But I'm not sure that swing voters in rural Ohio are going to be into the non-farm payroll number.
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It gives the bond market a comfort level that you have a replacement just as vigilant on inflation as Greenspan was.
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I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
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If the President is really crippled I would look at the dollar to see whether there really is a market impact,
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If you look at who the markets would be the most comfortable with, and that has to be one of the top criteria, then Feldstein has got to be the No. 1 pick,