Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
bubble close concerned economic fed full growth housing market occasions percent possible rare
We should have economic growth of more than 3 percent this quarter. I think the Fed is concerned about a possible housing bubble and about us getting close to full employment. I think this is one of the rare occasions were the market has it wrong.
clear close economy few months negative next winter
The next few months are really crucial. If it's clear by the end of winter to most Americans that the economy has turned, the economy won't be a big negative for Bush. But it's a close call.
basis belief certainly close domestic encouraged growth half last saying sent signal wants
I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points, ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.
close fed
This idea that the Fed is close to done is very puzzling,
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
becomes blue bush call fat feeling might radical ribbon start talking target tax
The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
binge case compelling consumer raise spending
The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
chance cliche days december drag markets true won
I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
drag fear hard months spin
It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
changed earnings second thinking
It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
backing candidates conclude labor last organized
The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
attractive attracts currency states street strong types united wall
The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
people rhetoric stealing talking three turned ugly
This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,
almost angst billion cut cuts five mild spending though
Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.