Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
anyone conviction expected great last market reality seeing tone week
We're seeing the reality of a market that does not have any great conviction. Anyone who expected a linear, 'We're off to the races' kind of tone after last week was mistaken.
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You had a terrible day Friday with the market pricing in the reality of these events and you have a continuation of that reaction now. There are no surprises. It's pretty much across-the-board negativity.
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It's always been a high-multiple stock among the retailers based on the reality of terrific business performance. Wal-Mart has many times in the last 15 years been a lousy investment possibility because it's priced so high. Our thinking is they've got to always be right.
given investors people prospect rally reality telling three today
Three years ago people actually thought that the Dow could go to 36,000 and it did the opposite. It's when people have really given up on the prospect of a real rally that you see a real rally, but try telling that to most investors now. Three years ago there was no reality dose, today there's no perspective.
case expect higher january jump lower massive people percent profit run wanting year
We expect the year to end 2 to 3 percent higher or lower than where it is now. The case for it going down is a massive run of profit taking. The case for it going up is people wanting to get a jump on the January rally.
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These accounting worries go right to the underpinnings of trust and confidence. If trust isn't there, you're tugging at the loose thread of a cheap polyester suit. People are worried about what other shoes are getting ready to drop.
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Earnings have been good, but what you're starting to see is a return to the attitude about earnings that we saw in the late 1990's, where you're seeing more talk about whisper numbers, higher expectations, and a more punitive reaction to numbers that disappoint.
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Profit news continues to be good, and we are seeing some relief from the profit taking of the last few weeks. But there is an ongoing tug-of-war between 'we've come too far too fast,' and 'the economic recovery is strong' and you're seeing that played out on a day-to-day basis.
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Ostensibly, the advance was caused by oil coming down and some of the comments with the beige book.
figure people trying
People are trying to figure out what the real-world implications of AOL's announcement are.
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We think one of the more exciting opportunities this year in the market are in the tech sector.
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There's no real compelling reason for stocks to be up. But you've got little new news and there's an upward bias, so we're up today after a few days of selling.
catch start
Merrill may be more of a tortoise, but they'll start to catch up.
indicate likely people return seem seen volume waiting
I think if you look at volume it would seem to indicate there very likely may be a return of investors. People who are more opportunistic have seen the signs. But a lot of people are waiting for clarity.