Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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My sense is that you'll see a few more days of gains as a lot of money managers want to be long the market through the quarter end.
cue early forecasts given market next rest taking trend year
On any given day, the market is taking its cue from forecasts and results. Juniper was negative, so that's spilling through the Nasdaq. I think, overall, though, the trend through the rest of the year and into early next year will be more positive.
beginnings economic fast foot iraq next people pulling putting six
On a macro level, we are at the beginnings of an economic recovery, not as fast as some people want, and we may have some altercation with Iraq in the next six months. That uncertainty is putting the foot on the accelerator and pulling it off the accelerator at the same time.
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We're seeing the reality of a market that does not have any great conviction. Anyone who expected a linear, 'We're off to the races' kind of tone after last week was mistaken.
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We're looking at the first day of the rest of the year and it's looking like more of the same. On an up note, there is more discussion that maybe we have worked through some of the intense negativity of late and that the disconnect between the economic data and market action may end soon.
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You had a terrible day Friday with the market pricing in the reality of these events and you have a continuation of that reaction now. There are no surprises. It's pretty much across-the-board negativity.
companies future less report
What companies report now is less influential than what they say about future quarters.
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With Iraq off center stage, there is more good to focus on than not. The prospect of a double-dip recession will fade, I think.
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It's always been a high-multiple stock among the retailers based on the reality of terrific business performance. Wal-Mart has many times in the last 15 years been a lousy investment possibility because it's priced so high. Our thinking is they've got to always be right.
mixed news question
It's a mixed picture. There's no question that the news is a lot better, but it may be priced into the market.
clearly economy employment fed influenced next potential reflection report surprise
The potential is that there could have been a surprise that could have influenced the Fed next Tuesday, and clearly that hasn't happened. But employment is a lagging indicator. So the report is not a reflection of where the economy is going, but where it's been.
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The real issue is that energy prices keep rising -- it's like an invisible tax on the market and the consumer.
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Three years ago people actually thought that the Dow could go to 36,000 and it did the opposite. It's when people have really given up on the prospect of a real rally that you see a real rally, but try telling that to most investors now. Three years ago there was no reality dose, today there's no perspective.
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I think the market is beset with tenacious negativity. It's a 'glass is half empty' attitude in the market, where bad news is interpreted as bad news and any good news is just OK.