Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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On a macro level, we are at the beginnings of an economic recovery, not as fast as some people want, and we may have some altercation with Iraq in the next six months. That uncertainty is putting the foot on the accelerator and pulling it off the accelerator at the same time.
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With Iraq off center stage, there is more good to focus on than not. The prospect of a double-dip recession will fade, I think.
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The market is in a wait-and-see mode. It's waiting for confirmation of an economic recovery, some kind of resolution on Iraq and on what the Federal Reserve is going to do in its meeting this month.
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The market continues to attempt to find a footing. Essentially, we are still somewhat on hold as a result of events unfolding between the United States, Iraq and the United Nations. There just doesn't seem to be a meaningful signal that Iraq has decided to disarm.
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We expect the year to end 2 to 3 percent higher or lower than where it is now. The case for it going down is a massive run of profit taking. The case for it going up is people wanting to get a jump on the January rally.
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These accounting worries go right to the underpinnings of trust and confidence. If trust isn't there, you're tugging at the loose thread of a cheap polyester suit. People are worried about what other shoes are getting ready to drop.
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Earnings have been good, but what you're starting to see is a return to the attitude about earnings that we saw in the late 1990's, where you're seeing more talk about whisper numbers, higher expectations, and a more punitive reaction to numbers that disappoint.
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Profit news continues to be good, and we are seeing some relief from the profit taking of the last few weeks. But there is an ongoing tug-of-war between 'we've come too far too fast,' and 'the economic recovery is strong' and you're seeing that played out on a day-to-day basis.
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Ostensibly, the advance was caused by oil coming down and some of the comments with the beige book.
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People are trying to figure out what the real-world implications of AOL's announcement are.
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We think one of the more exciting opportunities this year in the market are in the tech sector.
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There's no real compelling reason for stocks to be up. But you've got little new news and there's an upward bias, so we're up today after a few days of selling.
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Merrill may be more of a tortoise, but they'll start to catch up.
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I think if you look at volume it would seem to indicate there very likely may be a return of investors. People who are more opportunistic have seen the signs. But a lot of people are waiting for clarity.