Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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I'm just amazed the market has been as strong as it has in the past few days.
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It's a mixed picture. There's no question that the news is a lot better, but it may be priced into the market.
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The CA investigation is an ongoing thing. They've had problems long before accounting scrutiny was fashionable, so the impact of that is muted. There is the sense that the market wants to shrug off the bad news.
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Earnings have been good, but what you're starting to see is a return to the attitude about earnings that we saw in the late 1990's, where you're seeing more talk about whisper numbers, higher expectations, and a more punitive reaction to numbers that disappoint.
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It's always been a high-multiple stock among the retailers based on the reality of terrific business performance. Wal-Mart has many times in the last 15 years been a lousy investment possibility because it's priced so high. Our thinking is they've got to always be right.
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These accounting worries go right to the underpinnings of trust and confidence. If trust isn't there, you're tugging at the loose thread of a cheap polyester suit. People are worried about what other shoes are getting ready to drop.
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It was great that we had three or four days of a healthy bounce. But our take is that the market is being unduly punitive right now.
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This is not an expensive stock. We think Merrill certainly has a significant amount of upward opportunity.
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The U.N. says go slow, the U.S. says the fact that Blix can't find anything is more of a comment on Blix than anything else. The point is, Bush is not going to be deterred by these findings.
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Profit news continues to be good, and we are seeing some relief from the profit taking of the last few weeks. But there is an ongoing tug-of-war between 'we've come too far too fast,' and 'the economic recovery is strong' and you're seeing that played out on a day-to-day basis.
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Ostensibly, the advance was caused by oil coming down and some of the comments with the beige book.
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People are trying to figure out what the real-world implications of AOL's announcement are.
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There's no real compelling reason for stocks to be up. But you've got little new news and there's an upward bias, so we're up today after a few days of selling.
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O'Neal has a good sense of where the business focus should be. He's been able to take advantage of a good business environment.