Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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We were going to have a knee-jerk negative reaction to the Fed's decision no matter what, with so many different opinions on what should be done, but I think today, it may be that people are looking more closely at the statement and see it as the Fed saying things are slowly going in the right direction.
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You had a terrible day Friday with the market pricing in the reality of these events and you have a continuation of that reaction now. There are no surprises. It's pretty much across-the-board negativity.
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We expect the year to end 2 to 3 percent higher or lower than where it is now. The case for it going down is a massive run of profit taking. The case for it going up is people wanting to get a jump on the January rally.
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With Iraq off center stage, there is more good to focus on than not. The prospect of a double-dip recession will fade, I think.
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What companies report now is less influential than what they say about future quarters.
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We think one of the more exciting opportunities this year in the market are in the tech sector.
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My sense is that you'll see a few more days of gains as a lot of money managers want to be long the market through the quarter end.
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On any given day, the market is taking its cue from forecasts and results. Juniper was negative, so that's spilling through the Nasdaq. I think, overall, though, the trend through the rest of the year and into early next year will be more positive.
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On a macro level, we are at the beginnings of an economic recovery, not as fast as some people want, and we may have some altercation with Iraq in the next six months. That uncertainty is putting the foot on the accelerator and pulling it off the accelerator at the same time.
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We're seeing the reality of a market that does not have any great conviction. Anyone who expected a linear, 'We're off to the races' kind of tone after last week was mistaken.
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We're looking at the first day of the rest of the year and it's looking like more of the same. On an up note, there is more discussion that maybe we have worked through some of the intense negativity of late and that the disconnect between the economic data and market action may end soon.
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The real issue is that energy prices keep rising -- it's like an invisible tax on the market and the consumer.
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I think if you look at volume it would seem to indicate there very likely may be a return of investors. People who are more opportunistic have seen the signs. But a lot of people are waiting for clarity.
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I think as the year goes on there is going to be more conviction about an economic recovery. I think the market's sort of sideways with an upside bias at least for the next couple of months. I think we'll have a nice fourth quarter.