David Seiders
David Seiders
affect behavior blow changes consumer current enduring equity happening help hoping house people price spending view
It's when people view these changes as enduring that it really can affect their current spending behavior. I think that is happening probably, and I'm hoping that house price appreciation, the equity accumulation, will help soften the blow in consumer spending.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
activity classic conditions cyclical market process rather retreat spiral
The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process from unsustainable market conditions in 2005, rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time.
definitely good housing market sign
This is definitely a good sign that the housing market is stabilizing.
january numbers permit temporary view
I view the housing-starts and permit numbers for January as a temporary burst.
wonder
It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.
behind driving factor forward housing key market move numbers record strong weather winter
The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
balance builders generally healthy maintained supply throughout
As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
component economy element engine expecting growth move negative neutral next strong year
I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.
basically builders changed forecasts gave months move next opportunity quarter weather
The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.