David Seiders
David Seiders
continue high incredibly level numbers riding
The numbers continue to look great. We're riding at an incredibly high level here.
affect behavior blow changes consumer current enduring equity happening help hoping house people price spending view
It's when people view these changes as enduring that it really can affect their current spending behavior. I think that is happening probably, and I'm hoping that house price appreciation, the equity accumulation, will help soften the blow in consumer spending.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
glaring happen hottest point problems reached
It's healthy. We do need to have that happen -- gracefully, though. Affordability problems are glaring in the hottest areas. We've reached the point where something's really got to give.
housing run
It's been an unprecedented run for the housing sector.
january numbers permit temporary view
I view the housing-starts and permit numbers for January as a temporary burst.
behind driving factor forward housing key market move numbers record strong weather winter
The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.
few impossible inflation maintain past price seen
It was impossible to maintain double-digit price inflation like we've seen the past few years.
attitude consumer dropped easy equity fairly fall favorable given period savings strong tax
We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.
start
When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.
declines followed forecasts home housing percent sales smaller starts
Our forecasts show 6 percent to 7 percent declines in home sales and single-family housing starts in 2006, followed by smaller declines in 2007.
biggest builder came drop evidence housing market peaked since somewhere survey third
There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.
hidden risk
The big risk is: How many investor-owned units are there? How many hidden units will come back into the market?
basically builders changed forecasts gave months move next opportunity quarter weather
The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.