David Seiders
David Seiders
wonder
It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.
affect behavior blow changes consumer current enduring equity happening help hoping house people price spending view
It's when people view these changes as enduring that it really can affect their current spending behavior. I think that is happening probably, and I'm hoping that house price appreciation, the equity accumulation, will help soften the blow in consumer spending.
january numbers permit temporary view
I view the housing-starts and permit numbers for January as a temporary burst.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
behind driving factor forward housing key market move numbers record strong weather winter
The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.
continue high incredibly level numbers riding
The numbers continue to look great. We're riding at an incredibly high level here.
balance builders generally healthy maintained supply throughout
As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
basically builders changed forecasts gave months move next opportunity quarter weather
The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.
biggest builder came drop evidence housing market peaked since somewhere survey third
There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.
few impossible inflation maintain past price seen
It was impossible to maintain double-digit price inflation like we've seen the past few years.