David Seiders
David Seiders
builder confidence consumer december early helped interest nicely rates since
Some softening of long-term interest rates since early December helped buoy builder attitudes. Consumer confidence has rebounded nicely from post-Katrina lows.
cards despite economy housing incredibly might near piece present provided resilient risks seemed simply throw
This has been an incredibly resilient U.S. economy, and housing has been a significant piece of that. The hurricanes provided a very significant risk, but we have seemed to have come through that. Despite the risks that might be present in the near future, I'll throw my cards into this economy simply because of how it's performed.
decline february housing normal returned suggesting
It is a time-tested pattern. February has essentially returned to normal conditions, suggesting to me that we will see a substantial decline in housing starts.
current economic next recession
We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.
assessment home housing overall quarter sales sector terms third
My overall assessment of the housing sector is that we probably fundamentally topped out in the third quarter of 2005 in terms of home sales and housing production.
wonder
It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.
calling heck
I'm calling 2006 a simmering-down process. It's been one heck of a run.
activity classic conditions cyclical market process rather retreat spiral
The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process from unsustainable market conditions in 2005, rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time.
definitely good housing market sign
This is definitely a good sign that the housing market is stabilizing.
gains potential process trailing worried
I am worried about the potential for a trailing down process that gains some momentum.
attitude basically either healthy reports suspicion telling
I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report. Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised.
begin conclude early evidence exuberance fed found growing hit housing losing mark market period seeking
The housing market is seeking out a peak. While it is still too early to conclude that it has found one, there is growing evidence that the Fed has started to hit its mark and housing will begin losing some of its exuberance in the period ahead.
bit early high moving people rate seeing
The home-ownership rate has edged down a bit from its high in early 2004, and we're seeing more people moving into rental housing.
bolster continues exhibit favorable household housing income job market mortgage ongoing overall remain strength strong
All the fundamentals remain in place, and the overall housing market continues to exhibit ongoing strength. Favorable mortgage rates, as well as strong household income and job growth, continue to bolster housing demand.